met office

Overview of Met Office research, by Met Office Chief Scientist Julia Slingo

The Met Office is a science-led organisation and our success in weather forecasting and climate prediction depends, critically, on having a world-class research programme.

Over the last decade or so, predicting the weather and climate has emerged as one of the most important areas of scientific endeavour. This is partly because climate change is now widely accepted and there is a rapidly increasing realisation that it will affect every person in the world profoundly — either directly or indirectly. It is also partly because the remarkable increase in skill of current weather forecasts has made society more and more dependent on them, from day-to-day, for a whole range of decision-making.

The challenge for those involved in research at the Met Office is to remain at the cutting edge of modelling and predicting the evolution of the atmosphere, oceans and fully coupled climate system. We need be at the cutting edge so we can provide an increasingly accurate and reliable service across all sectors that are vulnerable to the effects of adverse weather, ocean and climatic conditions — now or in the future. Our research has to span an ever-increasing range of science disciplines — from fundamental atmospheric physics to ecosystem behaviour.

Research collaboration will be essential for delivering the predictive capability that the Met Office will require in the coming decade, if we are to deliver a world-class weather and climate service. Our role as an integrator and facilitator of weather and climate modelling, research and prediction — within the UK academic sector and, increasingly, at an international level — is very important to us. The Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme with the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) is already an integral part of our research programme. Going forward, building stronger partnerships is at the core of our science strategy, and this section of our website is a vital part of communicating our science to those who work alongside us.

• Modelling systems:

Numerical models are at the heart of our forecasts and products as well as much of our research and development. While the Unified Model is key for our weather forecasts and climate prediction, we have several other modelling systems available to us.

• Foundation Science:

Foundation Science provides the underpinning science and model development critical to both weather and climate prediction. Foundation Science brings together those areas of Research and Development which are fundamental to Met Office excellence across both weather and climate prediction. It includes much of the work developing and evaluating the global Unified Model which is at the heart of our activities, and ensures that we gain maximum benefit from taking a seamless approach to science and prediction.

• Climate Science:

Climate Science provides the science capabilities to meet the requirements of a number of government and business customers. We provide advice to underpin mitigation and adaptation policy formation and decision making. The programme has components involving the development of climate datasets based on observations; the use of these datasets in climate change monitoring and attribution; and the use of Earth System Models to make future predictions from months to centuries into the future.

• Weather Science:

Weather Science provides the forecasting capabilities that are used for routine operational short to medium range forecasting of the weather, the oceans and their impacts. Activities include processing and assimilation of observations; developing forecast suite infrastructure; forecast evaluation; and optimisation of forecasts through post-processing. Weather Science also carries out research into improving ocean models and the dispersion model used for operational emergency response. Impacts research is focused on hazards such as flooding, air quality, windstorms and bathing water quality.